Volume, effort and the two signals that say whether the engine is improving. Everything here means running; the rest is on Body.
Predicted 10K
51:09
goal 49:59 · Riegel, from recent whole runs
Last 4 weeks
14 km
3-run weeks in a row
0 wk
the habit, not the fitness
Best 5K+ since restart
4:48 /km
5.0 km on 2026-08-27
Weekly volume
ran plan target
Relative effort
Strava's Relative Effort weights time by heart rate, so it sees a hard session that kilometres alone can't. Watch the bars against the dashed 4-week average — the plan wants a gradual climb, not spikes.
Pace per run
each run trend
Whole-run average pace, runs ≥ 2 km since June. The scatter jumps because easy days and quality days alternate — the trend is a rolling median across consecutive runs, grade-adjusted where the run's detail has been loaded so hillier weeks aren't read as lost fitness. It tracks the mix of sessions you ran as much as your fitness, so read the benchmarks and matched runs for the real verdict. Don't chase the goal line on easy days — the dots should mostly sit well below it.
Aerobic fitness
Heart rate at 6:00/km on flat ground, one dot per aerobic run — down is fitter. Each run's own average HR, corrected for how far its flat-equivalent pace sat from 6:00 using 0.22 bpm per s/km, fitted from 16 of your own runs. Interval sessions and races are left out: their average HR doesn't describe an aerobic effort.
6.6 bpm lower at the same pace than at the start of this window (156 → 149 bpm, 5 runs each end). That is the base block working — the same effort costs fewer beats.
Aerobic drift — how much the heart-rate-to-pace ratio slipped from the first half of each run to the second. Under 5% (the dashed line) the run was aerobically honest; well over it, the run was harder than it was meant to be whatever the pace said. Median of the last 23: +3.8%.
Terrain is handled by grade-adjusted pace throughout: 0.76 s/km per m/km of climb, fitted from 57 runs where Strava supplied its own figure.
Terrain from the map
32 runs since 2026-06-01 with the ground read from a 25 m elevation grid instead of the watch's barometer, which drifts by 10–40 m on a loop from home. Flat-equivalent pace, heart rate after the warm-up and drift all come from that.
Your curve, fitted through 12 steady runs from 2026-08-14: 1.6 bpm per 10 s/km of pace, scatter ±1.6 bpm. A run inside that scatter is on the curve; outside it is a day, not a fitness change.
flat pace
5:00
5:30
6:00
6:30
7:00
expected HR
161
156
152
147
142
Each bar is a steady run's heart rate against the curve at its own flat pace. Bars sinking below zero over the weeks is fitness; a single tall bar is sleep, a cold, or the day after football.
Runs from the last four months grouped onto the loops they were run on — routes you have done at least twice. Check the descent before picking one for a long run, not after.
Only runs synced from Strava carry a route, so the older exported history can't be grouped. Tonight's options, filtered to the session's distance, are on Today.
Log your time in the note when you complete a benchmark — it shows up here. No race is booked: week 16 is a goal-attempt window, run it whenever the benchmarks say go.
Data
Log a run by hand
For runs Strava doesn't have. Time as mm:ss or h:mm:ss.
Strava
Connected as David Arnarson · 88 run(s) synced · last sync 2026-09-28 09:07 · auto-sync on